ERCOT Looks To Overhaul Power Forecasting Methods
October 21, 2013
Figuring out how much power Texas is going to need a decade into the future has never been easy. It relies on estimates, projections, predictions, expected trends, economic forecasts – none of which can be determined with absolute certainty.
As a result, the process has come under fierce scrutiny recently, as new market rules, economic fluctuations and changes in energy patterns are bringing into question long-held assumptions about the severity of the state’s power needs.
ERCOT is in the midst of a five-month process to redraw its forecasting methodology. And Public Utility Commissioner Brandy Marty testified earlier this month that a decision on whether to restructure the market in which electricity is generated and sold would have to wait for an updated projection on the state’s future power needs.
In an interview, Warren Lasher, ERCOT director of system planning, said no official changes have been made yet. But the new methodology could lower existing forecasts. From weather modeling to economic growth projections to the impact of energy efficiency trends, everything is under review.
“It’s possible the economy is becoming more efficient in using electricity,” Lasher said. “The building [efficiency] standards are getting stronger, wholesale price caps are increasing . . . lots of things are happening that are likely to reduce power load going forward.”